On June 2, Mexico elected Claudia Sheinbaum, its first female president, who will take office on October 1. She is highly educated, holding a Doctorate of Philosophy in Energy Engineering, and she has worked at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California. She is highly published in her field, having authored two books and more than 100 articles.
When Mexico’s Institutional Revolutionary Party, known as the PRI, held office from 1929 to 2000, the outgoing president would give the “dedazo,” or finger-point to the candidate from the PRI that he wanted to replace him. Receiving the dedazo was akin to being elected the next president. This practice went away when the PAN party won the presidential elections in 2000. However, President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador (AMLO) appears to have brought the dedazo back and has strongly supported Sheinbaum and outright campaigned for her. Sheinbaum’s relationship with outgoing Mexican president AMLO is an interesting one. She worked for AMLO when he was the Mayor of Mexico City, and they have remained close ever since.
Sheinbaum has stated that she intends to keep pursuing many of AMLO’s policies. However, AMLO has caused controversy by doing things such as attempting to restrict the independence of Mexico’s court system and attempting to restrict the freedom of the press. In spite of this, AMLO’s latest approval ratings are above 60 percent, so most Mexicans have tended to like his policies and his populist policy of fighting for the small guy and indigenous groups.
Sheinbaum will have her hands full, with the elephant in the room being organized crime, represented in cartel drug and human smuggling operations and the country’s high murder rate. AMLO chose not to take on the cartels, adopting the slogan “Hugs not bullets,” preferring to try to steer Mexico’s youth to legitimate careers away from cartel activities.
During her campaign, Sheinbaum made reducing the murder rate in Mexico a priority. She announced that as president she would reduce Mexico’s murder rate from 23.3 murders for every 100,000 residents to 19.4 per 100,000. If she is going to do this, will she continue AMLO’s “Hugs not bullets” approach to cartels and organized crime that basically leaves them alone to conduct their illicit activities? This has essentially ceded portions of the country to cartel control. During her tenure as Mexico City’s mayor from 2013 to 2023, the murder rate did go down 50 percent in the nation’s capital, but areas and industries where cartels are entrenched are going to be much harder to address. How is she going to manage cartel strongholds such as Michoacan and Sinaloa?
AMLO actively worked to roll back Mexico’s energy reform, hampering Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in this field. He also put the brakes on the drive towards renewable energy, preferring the age-old approach of relying on PEMEX for energy needs. Sheinbaum is an active player in the energy field, so it will be interesting to see what approach she takes.
AMLO has had a somewhat distant relationship with the U.S., and has been reluctant to fully cooperate on stifling the flow of drugs and immigrants north to the U.S. until his final year in office. Mexico recently overtook China as the U.S.’s largest trading partner, so the stakes are high in Sheinbaum developing a strong relationship with the U.S. in terms of trade policy. Mexico has benefited greatly from companies leaving Asia for North America because of the U.S.-China trade war and disruptions in supply chains. Juarez alone has several major Taiwanese companies that have moved their Chinese operations to build campuses in this border city.
However, this has occurred with AMLO seemingly indifferent to the attraction of this type of FDI. Rather, AMLO has preferred to focus more on bringing economic development opportunities to indigenous groups, mostly located in the southern part of Mexico. Most Mexican businesspeople I have spoken to during AMLO’s term complain that he has not been business-friendly. During her campaign, Sheinbaum mentioned that attracting FDI would be important in her administration. The verdict is still out on how Sheinbaum will steer the country in terms of economic development, although she did announce that she will create a new ministry overseeing science, humanities, technology, and innovation.
With all that she will have on her plate, the real question is: Will she be her own president? How much will AMLO attempt to carry on his policies and agenda during Sheinbaum’s administration? There is a joke floating around in Mexico that AMLO will simply be transferring his presidential office to his house after October 1. The first few months of Sheinbaum’s term promise to be revealing.
